Electricity and climate in Morocco
How heat and cold weigh on electricity demand, how rainfall weighs on generation, and what a hot summer or cold winter costs a household in each city.
Updated : 26 October 2026
Key results
1 Electricity demand and temperature
Monthly demand: observed and model estimate
Regression of monthly demand on cooling and heating degree-days, with a linear trend, month fixed effects and a lockdown dummy (March to June 2020). 117 months (2016-07 to 2026-03), R² = 0.95. Each cooling degree-day above the usual level for the same month is associated with +1.53 GWh (standard error 0.50, p = 0.002). The heating degree-day effect, +0.55 GWh, is not statistically significant (p = 0.292).
Weather-related demand, by month
By year
Weather-related demand = coefficient × (degree-days of the month minus the 1991-2020 normal for the same month). Degree-days (Eurostat definition): cooling = daily mean temperature minus 21 when it reaches 24 °C; heating = 18 minus the daily mean when it is 15 °C or below. National mean weighted by regional population (2024 census). This is a statistical association, not a demonstrated causal effect.
2 Generation and climate
Electricity generation by source
Hydropower and rainfall
Correlation between season rainfall (September to August, mean of the six basin points) and the year's hydropower: Pearson r = 0.77 (p = < 0.001), Spearman ρ = 0.63 (p = < 0.001), 26 years. Dry years go with less hydropower, made up by coal, gas or imports.
3 Household bills: simulator
Defaults: estimated national sensitivity divided by 9.28 million households (2024 census). It includes non-residential uses: an average order of magnitude, not a measurement for a given household. A household with air conditioning probably uses much more: change the value. The 120 kWh base is an assumption (according to the Energy Ministry in 2018, over 80% of customers use on average under 150 kWh a month).
| Month | CDD | HDD | kWh | Bill | Normal climate | Gap |
|---|
Bill in MAD including tax, excluding fixed charges. Progressive tariff up to 150 kWh; above that, selective tariff: the price of the bracket reached applies to all consumption. A hot month can therefore make the bill jump when it pushes use above 150 kWh (flagged months).
Tariff used
| Progressive: up to 100 kWh | 0.9010 DH/kWh |
| Progressive: 101 to 150 kWh | 1.0732 DH/kWh |
| Selective : 151 – 210 kWh | 1.0732 DH/kWh |
| Selective : 211 – 310 kWh | 1.1676 DH/kWh |
| Selective : 311 – 510 kWh | 1.3817 DH/kWh |
| Selective : 511 + kWh | 1.5958 DH/kWh |
Source: domestic low-voltage tariff published by RADEEJ. The 210, 310 and 510 limits include the stated 10 kWh tolerance. PDF
4 Extra cost by city
Typical household (120 kWh base, average sensitivity): difference between the bill over the last 12 months and the same household's bill under the 1991-2020 climate.
| City | Summer (Jun-Sep) | Winter (Dec-Feb) | 12 months | Months > 150 kWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marrakesh | +106 DH | −12 DH | +114 DH | 3 (normal 2) |
| Beni Mellal | +83 DH | −4 DH | +95 DH | 4 (normal 2) |
| Meknes | +79 DH | −3 DH | +83 DH | 2 (normal 0) |
| Fez | +73 DH | −6 DH | +73 DH | 3 (normal 2) |
| Oujda | +90 DH | −14 DH | +69 DH | 2 (normal 0) |
| Guelmim | +58 DH | −2 DH | +60 DH | 1 (normal 0) |
| Laayoune | +55 DH | −2 DH | +54 DH | 0 |
| Settat | +30 DH | +0 DH | +38 DH | 0 |
| Al Hoceima | +43 DH | −4 DH | +38 DH | 0 |
| Kenitra | +31 DH | −3 DH | +35 DH | 0 |
| Tangier | +37 DH | −2 DH | +33 DH | 0 |
| Dakhla | +18 DH | +1 DH | +25 DH | 0 |
| Casablanca | +21 DH | −4 DH | +23 DH | 0 |
| Errachidia | +26 DH | −5 DH | +22 DH | 3 |
| Tetouan | +22 DH | −2 DH | +19 DH | 0 |
| Rabat | +10 DH | −5 DH | +10 DH | 0 |
| Agadir | −3 DH | +2 DH | −0 DH | 0 |
| Safi | −20 DH | −8 DH | −30 DH | 0 |
Amounts are small for an average household because the default sensitivity is a national average that includes households without air conditioning. The largest effect comes from crossing 150 kWh. Try the simulator with a higher sensitivity for an equipped household.