Morocco Climate and Economy ObservatoryClimate risk, economy and financial stability
ARFR
Beta version 1.0 · Independent research website. It does not represent any official institution and is not investment advice. Every figure comes with its source.
Climate · Economy · Financial stability · Sustainable development

How do climate shocks spread to Morocco's economy and financial system?

Indicators updated automatically from open sources, each figure shown with its source and update date.

Site last updated: 22 October 2026 Latest complete climate month: 2026-09
1991Each stripe is one year: mean temperature anomaly (national) relative to 1991–2020 (blue cooler, red warmer). Source: Open-Meteo (ERA5), Observatory calculations.2025

Key indicators

Climate risk indexAnnual composite index (temperature, rainfall, CO₂ emissions) built by principal component analysis, on a 0–100 scale relative to 1998–2025.

Exceptional
100.0
2025 · relative to the reference distribution (0–100) Source: Observatory calculations

Financial stress indexAnnual composite index (banks, stock market, public finances, external sector). Higher values mean more stress on the financial system. 0–100 scale relative to 1998–2025.

Normal
50.0
2025 · relative to the reference distribution (0–100) Source: Observatory calculations

SPEI-3 drought (national average)Standardised drought index: compares the balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration with what is normal for the same period. Below −1 moderate, below −1.5 severe, below −2 extreme drought. The number 3 or 12 is the number of months accumulated.

Moderate drought
-1.11
2026-09 Source: Open-Meteo (ERA5)

Temperature anomaly (ref. 1991–2020)Difference between the observed mean temperature and the 1991–2020 average for the same month. A positive value means a warmer-than-normal month.

+3.3 °C
2026-09 Source: Open-Meteo (ERA5)

The 2025 climate risk index is high mainly because of the "atypical deviation component" (46% of the value), which treats a very wet year like a very dry one. Details on the Financial stability page.

Monthly brief

September 2026

September 2026 shows a national temperature anomaly of +3.3 °C relative to 1991–2020, the warmest September since 1991.

Rainfall reached 49% of the monthly normal.

Read the full brief →

The twelve regions

Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima · SPEI-3 -1.59Oriental · SPEI-3 -1.71Fez-Meknes · SPEI-3 -3.12Rabat-Sale-Kenitra · SPEI-3 -0.14Beni Mellal-Khenifra · SPEI-3 -1.51Casablanca-Settat · SPEI-3 0.69Marrakesh-Safi · SPEI-3 -1.18Draa-Tafilalet · SPEI-3 0.36Souss-Massa · SPEI-3 0.66Guelmim-Oued Noun · SPEI-3 -2.24Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra · SPEI-3 -2.33Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab · SPEI-3 -1.15
© OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL)
Wet Normal Moderate drought Severe drought Extreme drought

SPEI-3 drought index at each region's representative point (regional capital). Click a region to see its details.

Climate risk and financial stress over time

The relationship shown is a co-movement over time. Granger tests indicate predictive precedence, not structural causality.

Financial stress index forecast for 2026

50.0

[32.5 ; 66.5]

The model shown has the lowest out-of-sample error. The interval matches the 10th and 90th percentiles of its past errors. Forecasts →

Explore

Climate Climate Monthly indices computed from daily ERA5 reanalysis data, compared with 1991–2020 normals. Financial stability Financial stability and macroeconomy Climate risk and financial stress indices (annual) and Morocco's macroeconomic indicators. Forecasts Forecasts Next-year financial stress index forecast, with the models' error history. Scenarios Scenarios Effect of a climate shock on the financial stress index depending on the state of the financial system. Monthly brief Monthly brief Monthly climate summary written automatically from the data, with an RSS feed. Comparisons Comparisons Morocco compared with Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Spain (World Bank). Methodology Methodology and data Independent research website. It does not represent any official institution and is not investment advice. Every figure comes with its source.

Publications and reports

Report · 2026 L'adoption responsable de l'intelligence artificielle dans la finance : lecture des 12 pratiques saines du FSB (2026) et projection sur le système financier marocain Note d'analyse et de prospective, octobre 2026 Download PDF
Report · 2026 The Super El Niño Year: Climate risk at 1.5 °C and beyond Climate Risk Outlook, October 2026 Download PDF
Report · 2026 Le dirham sous pression : flottement ou simple ajustement ? Note d'analyse économique, 11 octobre 2026 Download PDF
All publications and reports →