Climate projections to 2050

How regional climate could change over 2031–2050 compared with 1991–2020, according to three high-resolution climate models under a high-emissions scenario.

Updated : 23 October 2026

Download in progress

Projection data are large (12 regions × 60 years × 3 models), so they are downloaded in stages during daily updates to stay within the free service quota. Results will appear automatically once at least one model is complete.

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Method and limits

Three CMIP6 HighResMIP models, chosen in advance to represent different centres: EC-Earth3P-HR (Europe), MPI-ESM1-2-XR (Germany), MRI-AGCM3-2-S (Japan). Data from the Open-Meteo Climate API, bias-corrected to ERA5-Land.
A single scenario, close to RCP8.5 (high emissions): results therefore represent the upper range of warming, without more moderate pathways.
Values at each region's representative point (capital), not an average over its whole territory.
A projection is not a forecast: it describes a possible path under emissions and model assumptions; the spread between models is part of the result.

Source : Open-Meteo, Climate API (CMIP6 HighResMIP) ; ERA5 ; Observatory calculations